Cash Rate Decision
On May 20th, 2025, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) reduced the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85 per cent, following a hold at 4.10 per cent in April 2025. This decision reflects continued moderation in inflation, alongside evolving domestic and international uncertainties. While inflation remains within the target band, the RBA acknowledged signs of weaker economic momentum and made a cautious move to ease monetary policy slightly. The RBA reaffirmed its commitment to price stability and full employment in its Statement on Monetary Policy, while closely monitoring global developments, labour market dynamics, and domestic demand.
What Impacted the RBA’s Decision
The RBA cited a further decline in inflation, with headline inflation at 2.4 per cent and trimmed mean inflation at 2.9 per cent, marking the first time since 2021 that underlying inflation has returned below 3 per cent. However, despite easing price pressures, uncertainties persist around both global and domestic economic conditions. Key factors influencing the RBA’s decision include international risks, such as rising tariff measures in the United States and broader geopolitical uncertainties, which may dampen global economic activity and impact consumer and business confidence. Further, domestic conditions demonstrate mixed signals.
While household incomes have improved and financial stress has eased for some, demand remains uneven, and some businesses continue to face challenges in passing on cost increases. The labour market remains tight, with low levels of underutilisation and continued employment growth. However, wage growth has softened, and productivity remains weak, keeping unit labour costs elevated. The RBA noted that the effects of past monetary tightening are still unfolding, and that any recovery in household consumption may be slower than previously expected, creating potential risks to employment and overall demand.
Moving Forward
As inflation returns to the RBA’s target range of 2-3 per cent and upside risks ease, the central bank has signalled more balanced inflationary pressures. Still, with continued volatility in global financial markets and an uncertain trajectory for both demand and labour productivity, the RBA remains cautious.
The RBA indicated that it will continue to closely monitor inflation trends, labour market performance, and global developments, and is prepared to adjust policy settings as necessary. Its next monetary policy decision is scheduled for July 8th, 2025, and will be informed by further economic data, including any impacts from international trade policies and domestic consumption trends.
The REIV will continue to keep its membership informed of these developments, particularly as borrowing power, investment activity, and mortgage servicing capacity remain sensitive to monetary policy adjustments.